Prediction Markets and Elections

Rather than developing mathematical models for prediction and decision support, should organizations consider designing methods for managed betting!  It seems like betting has continued to predict the election outcomes in the USA correctly, and companies like InTrade may just set the next transformation driven by leveraging social behavior in how to think about the future.

Visit Intrade's website here, it is worth a visit.

Though do note from The Economist article here:

"It now appears that the spotlight may have done Intrade more harm than good. On November 26th America’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued the company for allowing betting on the prices of products, such as oil and gold, which trade on derivatives markets it regulates. (In 2005 Intrade had promised the CFTC not to offer such contracts.) In response to the suit, the firm announced it would no longer let Americans trade on its site."