Wired: Parag Khana - Embrace the Post-American Age

Wired magazine has published fifteen letters to the next President of the USA from fifteen talented individuals. One of the letters is from Mr. Parag Khana here.

I found the overall impression of Mr. Khana's abandonment of historical lessons enjoyable. Here is an excerpt from the article:

"[Mr. Khana] describes a planet dominated by a trio of superpowers: the US, China, and Europe. In this tripolar era, America's fate depends on tough national choices, not lame historical analogies. If the US wises up — by tightening trade and energy ties to the rest of the hemisphere, pursuing economic innovation at home, and establishing a "diplomatic-industrial complex" — it can grow stronger..."

In the long cycles of gains of power by nations and then losing them, USA has a handicap that it is but a child among the ancients. Especially enjoyable above is the term "lame historical analogies", if America does not learn from its successes and failures then... what?

Regarding Mr. Khana's comments on India and China - In my daily international activities, I work and engage with more South Asians across Fortune 500 companies second only to Caucasians in senior executive positions. One of the main winning assets (proven anthropologically) for a society in fast growth is unhindered communication across all spheres of conduction of business. South Asia's language is English and the world does business in English. It is interesting to note that Mr. Khana's background did not ground him in realities of his birth place.

In my opinion, the future economic giants will be the ones who develop and harness Intellectual Property. I disagree with Mr. Khana when he discounts India against China. See this article at WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization) on insights on approach by the two nations. Creativity is not regime-able, at least in my belief. Creativity must have a choice otherwise when an edict (let's say of "thou shall create") is driven upon a society, documented human history does not show positive results... aaa! I forget that Mr. Khana does not believe in "lame historical analogies".

My personal experiences have shown South Asian to be second or on par to Americans and Israelis when it comes to being entrepreneurial and aggressive at business. A comparative analysis of the most recent millionaires and billionaires between China and India will reveal some parallels yet striking differences as the Indian billionaires have literally attacked the global markets when it comes to growing the business, from Mittal Steel acquiring Arcelor (Arcelor Mittal) or Tata acquiring Land Rover / Jaguar and a plethora more of them.

This is unique to India or anyother developing economy. In comparison, China is currently focused internally... it has much to grow with-in than out, hence, that global growth may be a secondary consideration?

As Mr. Khana himself stated, "I think I'm the only person who went to Davos ten times by the age of 30... I'm not sure that's a good thing." A good observation?

I will comment on World Economic Forum in Davos if I go next year.

As to Mr. Khana's comments on Iran - I have to question the assumptive generalization: Does all that the West has to offer is great? In a world rapidly being democratized through commoditization of essentials of life, where the owners of this commoditization are India and China, where the beneficiaries of such democratization forces are mostly in Asia and Africa... this assumption by Mr. Khana is a dangerous one.

Overall, this article is uniquely insightful and entertaining, about and from an educated 31 year old World Economic Forum alumni.

Marketing for "Individualism" vs. Word-of-Mouth for "Mass Production"

I worked on developing IP and technologies for Procter & Gamble's breakthrough and game changing word-of-mouth marketing ventures - Tremor and VocalPoint. See details here and further links.

While browsing my friend and colleague Franz Dill's blog on WOM here, it has occured to me that the viral marketing space is going to find itself at slight odds when the consumer becomes more educated, with more choice and is interested in a product that "fits their" needs. See another blog by Franz here on WOM.

WOM is still playing at the head of the demand curve (Click here to read about the Long Tail). Yet, the world has moved on from mass production to mass customization to the 21st century where indivudalized products / services will come to be. See my related blogs extrapolating this further into the concept I call "Tail Spike" here and here.

Influencers and influenced masses are a key to developing WOM push and pull marketing strategies and tactics. Yet, a new burgeoning class of "choice devisors" is coming into being. Perhaps it has always existed and we are now discovering it. These are the folks who are not influenced, they do not care to influence... yet, they are creating and devising the new / next generation of product / service that will be used by the mutually inclusive class of masses mentioned earlier.

A leading work currently under way that looks at these "choice devisors" is the work of Dr. Eric Von Hippel, Dr. Christoph Hienerth (bio & current) and Dr. Marion Potz around "Lead User" concept.

Lead User work is facinating and I plan to publish more in the near future with Dr. Hienerth's and Dr. Potz's guidance. For now, here is an excerpt from Wikipedia:

"Lead user is a term developed by Eric von Hippel in 1986. His definition for lead user is:

1. Lead users face needs that will be general in a marketplace – but face them months or years before the bulk of that marketplace encounters them, and
2. Lead users are positioned to benefit significantly by obtaining a solution to those needs

In other words: Lead users are users of a product that currently experience needs still unknown to the public and who also benefit greatly if they obtain a solution to these needs."

World Perspective / Photo - 2 [Farming Investment]

Global trends are the excitement for the hedge funds, banks and investors. One that has been gaining steam / noise in the past six to twelve months has been farming for food supplies to regions of the world where farming is cost prohibitive and / or not possible at all.

It is interesting to see the investments out of the Gulf into South and South East Asian farms. A great article on the subject from the Economist here. The not so fortunate part is that the agreements / contracts are mostly at a governmental level, which leave a lot to be desired when it comes to the application of the rule of law in those regions. The loser is and will be the uneducated farmer of these nations. See another good article from Asian Times here.

On the other hand lessons can be learned from the USA where the large corporations have caused the small farmer to cease to exist in an economically viable / successful fashion and other difficult issues have emerged. See explanations, insights and further links in an interesting article here from the Food & Water Watch.

For me it is exciting to see a new opportunity for the Frontier Markets such as Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. The topic to watch would be that does the "openness" in business practices that are driven when the individual investor come into a market happen? Does healthy regulation gets developed and then executed consistently? I believe it will.

World Perspective / Photo - 1 [Wireless Communication]

A donkey cart in Pakistan with the owner using a cell phone.

Interestingly, Pakistan's cell phone connectivity system will become the leader in Asia, beating the Far East Asian nations around 2010. Couple of examples of investments in this industry in Pakistan are China Mobile and Mobilink.

Breakthrough Innovation in The 3rd World - A Tail Spike Example

In the mid 80s in Pakistan, an idea started that Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) could be used in gasoline engines by doing minor tuning to existing and new gasoline automobiles. The Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan provided funding to further the cause. Today Pakistan is one of the leading countries that has a plethora of Japanese automotive being built in Pakistan with dual fuel options (petrol and CNG) for retail sales.

What truly and literally started as shade-tree mechanic experiments now is an alternate fuel solution for tens of millions of automobile owners in Pakistan.

Click here for an example Suzuki.

Click here for the large number of dual fuel setup kits that can be purchased and installed in a gasoline car.

Telescope@400YearsOld.Today

It is hard to imagine where mankind would be if Mr. Galilei had been thwarted by the power that was and is. The most reliable accounts place the invention of the telescope by Hans Lippershey. Galileo was the extreme refiner of the telescope that brought the fundamental changes to human understanding as we know it.

Here is a link to a series of very good articles from the Wired on the history of the instrument and where it may yet take us. An excerpt:

"This invention was also the most seditious, blasphemous instrument of all time, shaking the very foundations of society."

Can we learn from our mistakes?

Context Over Dogma

Chris Bangle defines the new concept car GINA as simply - "Context Over Dogma". Chris's talk below has implications across product design holistically... Enjoy!

Science Magazine's Visualization Challenege 2008

Science Magazine and NSF joined together to conduct The International Science & Engineering Visualization Challenge 2008. One of the great achievements of technology in the recent years has been the ability to communicate complex information and ideas through visualization. This effort highlights the progress through the years as you may see in the links to the previous five Visualization Challenges. Here is an excerpt from the site:

"The winners -- in categories including photography, illustration, informational graphics, and multimedia -- captured the crystalline beauty of diatoms, the expanse of the human circulatory system, a fairy tale tea party re-invented, and the dynamic life of a plant cell."

See the visual presentation of the Visualization Challenge 2008 here. I also recommend listening to an interview with Alisa Zapp Machalek here - one of the judges of the Challenge.

Google Patent a Disruption in US Telecommunications Market Place

Google's patent filed in March 2007 and released today can bring real-time bidding to all types of wireless communications use. An excerpt from Wired:

"Google's patent filing describes "devices, systems and methods" that would automatically poll nearby wireless services to find the best price for a voice or a data connection for a "portable communications device." That connection might come via a cellphone carrier, a WiMax provider, or even a Wi-Fi hotspot. According to the patent, users can either manually select the bid they like best or they can allow the device to connect automatically with the lowest-cost provider."

Read the Wired article here.

Read the patent filed here.

Emdrive

I read about the Emdrive or electromagnetic relativity drive back in 2006 in the New Scientist here. Interestingly, recently Chinese researchers have claimed the confirmation of the theory behind Emdrives and are building a demonstration as we speak. Read details here.

Water thins - Air will be rarer

Brilliant presentation by way of Steve Levin at SlideShare.

Water shortages at a massive scale may arrive before the energy crisis hits home... yet who could have predicted we will be buying water 20 years ago, where today it is approx. $13B industry in the USA.

I believe we will be buying air in the metropolis of the world by mid-century on retail... wonder if air can become a CPG / FMCG product just like water? I am confident it will.

Enjoy!

THIRST

Education Systems

Here is a link to a good TedTalk on Creativity and Education (given by Ken Robinson) forwarded by Aylin Koca. I have seen across the world while lecturing in Universities in North America, Scandinavia, Middle East and South Asia that a large number of students coming out are thoroughly unprepared for the 21st century. From having no concept of what the Global business world is about to not being able to look beyond what they have been taught. I truly see some of these students looking like deer when they look at headlights coming at them at 60 mph.

I believe that just like the consumer has come to realize that they can choose, similarly the students will start to ask why we are still using the same methods of teaching from 100 years ago while the world is moving at 100 times the speed from 100 years ago.

And the students must (as they are the consumers of education), otherwise... the educational bureaucracies (the corporation) must continue to sell and make money from the shortest and easiest paths available to them.