IBM: Turning IP Into Software

"IBM, last week, announced the creation of the Services Innovation Lab (SIL), a new global lab of 200 technology experts from IBM, that aim to accelerate the expansion of real-time analytics and software automation."

Read detail here. SIL's focus areas will be:

• Cloud Computing
• Advanced Analytics
• Service Delivery Automation
• Enterprise Mobilization and Smarter Planet

Google: The Democratization Engine

Google is the "Democratization Engine" for the world's shoppers and consumers.  Let's talk Android - 

I am leaving the charms of the iPhone and the Apple!  If a few decades in the technology industry has taught me anything, it is that closed systems have revenue spikes when they deliver on the unmet need, though quickly lose it as competitors emerge with more standardized and open systems.  It is more so at speed now as the consumer is empowered.  Sounds cliche because marketers have used "we are empowering the shopper/consumer to make intelligent choices", yet today, the marketer has a tough battle on had.  The shopper/consumer are empowering themselves.

My foray into Apple's world was with the Lisa... then came the standardization driven through the IBM PC compatible running DOS and Apple products took their niche spot in the market while a somewhat open and driven towards standardization system of the IBM compatible allowed a world of inventions to become innovations, from hardware, firmware to software.

Can history repeat itself? Yes, it can and will.  It is not a claim but reality that the Android based smartphones will trump the iPhone in growth and market share.  Unless - Apple decides to change "some" thing(s) in its approach.  Its differentiation is diminishing due to competitor offerings, while its lock on distribution through AT&T will be ending in the USA.  Its partnership with AT&T perhaps will add to iPhone's decline as Consumer Report recently rated AT&T as the worst wireless service provider, see here.  Also, the Consumer Report has declined to recommend the iPhone as well, details at Consumer Reports here.

The activations of Android based devices is growing at 110 million, 5X what they were 10 months ago.

Andy Rubin, head of Google's mobile software recently said, "We are web-centric."  This is the reason to believe that Google will be successful against Apple and Microsoft.  He further added, "We really understand distributed computing - and I think Apple really understands desktop computing."

For those who may have forgotten or don't know, Google quietly acquired Android, Inc. back in 2005, see Business Week article here.

Core to this transformation in the market will be, as Financial Times quotes Andy Rubin "Leaving developers free to create new versions of their apps, rather than forcing them to "jump through hoops" to seek approval each time, as Apple does, echoes the web's approach to rapid iteration and improvement."

See FT article here.

Next on Google's democratization list, my guess - The SmartGrid!!!  I will write more how it can accomplish it soon.

Global Consumer Data - Telecommunications

From the Economist

Best Buy Going for Mobile Technology HFS!

"Brian Dunn, chief executive, told the Financial Times that the retailer expects eventually to have "a number somewhere between here and 1000" of Best Buy Mobile stores in shopping malls across the US, on top of the 77 it has already opened."

Read a related article at The Street here, see current Best Buy Mobile across the NE USA here.

Such stores will end up being similar to gas stations as the iPad driven convergence of internet communication, wireless telecom, content creation and management escalates.  Hence my reason to call them what they really ought to be - High Frequency Stores.  Something to invest in now?

1984: PC vs. Apple? PC - 2009: Android (based) vs. iPhone? Who?

In the 1980s IBM diluted Apple to single digit share of the personal computer market place.  I believe if Apple continues in the same vein, the Android powered smart-phones will do the same to it now.

Can Apple change? Will it?

Read more at Wired here.

Cisco to make SmartPhones

Since I published my blog on Cisco being the 21st century eCPG leader here, I have been provided with some insightful links on Cisco's further plans in the eCPG sector.

In an article "Are Smartphones on Cisco's Wish List?" here on Chinese website C114, analyst Mark Sue of RBC Capital Markets is stated as declaring:

"Considering its big push into the consumer market, we believe Cisco may be developing a smartphone of its own, slated for mid-2010."

To further the claim, the article cites:

"On Mar. 31, Cisco was awarded a patent for managing time delays in relaying video wirelessly to consumer electronics devices. The same day, it received a patent for a network-connected phone able to stream video. Many of Cisco's recently filed patents mention a personal digital assistant as a device that could potentially use the innovations described."

The article also provides good insights on the USA's broadband capabilities reaching a point where tele-presence will start to become a retail service along with cable TV, etc.

I look forward to the consumer digital services and values generated through competition.

Consumer Electronics - Nokia Wins in China

From the China Daily article "Nokia signs $1.76b phones deal in China" here. Article states:

"Nokia has signed a 2009 framework deal worth $1.76 billion to supply handsets in China for top phone distributor China PTAC, with the annual contract's value falling from the year ago."

What is interesting to note is that China produces large quantities of off-brand, generic mobile phones that are sold across South and South East Asia, Middle East and Africa. Yet, the quality associated with a brand such as Nokia is winning with the consumer.

Consumer Insights - iPhone Not a Hit in UAE

Interesting review of how consumers think about the iPhone in the Gulf region. See video of various interviews regarding the iPhone here.

Highlights from the conversations in the video are that pricing always plays an important role. Bridging the perception gap is an essential part of marketing, for example - In the video, a perspective consumer states how it is difficult to text using the iPhone. In reality, that is not the case. The mobile service provider Etisalat perhaps missed an opportunity here to touch the consumer on the specific need a mobile device fulfills for them - communication over text messaging.

Consumer Pricing and Service Growth

Many a times high service prices quelch the possibilities of growth that may have tangential ramifications on the consumer market. An example is the cost of text messages dropping substantially and being capped in Europe as discussed in BBC's article "Europe Backs Mobile Roaming Cap" here.

Dear Businessman: How Do You Get Consumer Insights?

I believe in having the "consumer in the loop" of any new and existing business that delivers a product or a service to a user. The ones who do, mostly/generically do so through focus groups and online/offline surveys. I was engaged in consumer innovation at Procter & Gamble at the company's Innovation Centers where we used immersive and experiential environments to obtain consumer insights. Innovation Centers remain one of the best ways to have "consumer in the loop". My feelings on the subject are echoed in Steve Jobs' statement back in 1998:

"It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them."

Statistical analysis is driving small to large to massive decisions (with economic and social impact) in all spheres of commerce and government. Below are two examples of caution:

First, I like to share the results of an in-depth study on the threat to human health from mobile phones. The Economist publihed an evaluation of this study conducted by Interphone started in 2000 and ending in 2006 costing $30m with 50 scientists engaged in 13 countries working with 14,000 people. The article "Mobile Madness" here states:

" “LONG-TERM mobile-phone use increases risk of benign tumours!” “Clean bill of health for the mobile!” “Mobile phone-cancer link not proven!” [...] even by the standards of modern news, it is unusual to see such contradictory headlines about the same piece of research."

My goal is to highlight the fact that translating qualitative information to quatitative data for making decisions remains a difficult place.

Second, to make it even more obvious see yet another article from the Economist "Mind Your Phone" here. The article discusses people's "electrosensitivity" or physical response to the electromagnetic fields that surround phones. What is interesting is (as the articles states):

"Dr Landgrebe and Dr Frick used a body scanner called a functional magnetic-resonance imager to see how people’s brains react to two different kinds of stimulus. Thirty participants, half of whom described themselves as electrosensitive, were put in the imager and told that they would undergo a series of trials in which they would be exposed either to an active mobile phone or to a heating device called a thermode, whose temperature would be varied between the trials. The thermode was real. The mobile phone, however, was a dummy."

The article concludes:

"The paradoxical upshot [...] is that mobile phones do indeed inflict real suffering on some unfortunate individuals. It is just that the electromagnetic radiation they emit has nothing whatsoever to do with it."

The above example shows that simple surveys and focus groups would have yielded results that may not provide the correct insights to base decisions on. Yet, an example of impact such evaluations as I stated before is:

"Sweden, has recognised such sensitivity as a disability, and will pay for the dwellings of sufferers to be screened from the world’s electronic smog."

So, how do you choose to make decisions for your business?

World Perspective / Photo - 1 [Wireless Communication]

A donkey cart in Pakistan with the owner using a cell phone.

Interestingly, Pakistan's cell phone connectivity system will become the leader in Asia, beating the Far East Asian nations around 2010. Couple of examples of investments in this industry in Pakistan are China Mobile and Mobilink.