India: Brand overload

Quote from WSJ article:

"India's store shelves groan under the weight of consumer brands. About 900 new food and beverage brands alone have been launched there in the past two years. Yet while shoppers enjoy ever more choice, it is getting harder for companies such as Procter & Gamble and Hindustan Unilever to preserve profit margins."

Consumer Products Goods sector is going to be a very competitive market in this decade to create large values for investors. The winners will be ones who are Unique versus Distinctive. See my previous blog on the subject here, or win on price points.

How green was my Valley!

As the president of TIE Carolinas, an entrepreneurial non-profit, I engage with business men and women from across the world. A trend is clear and omniscient - the world at large, specifically Asia and Africa, have a populace that is aspirationaly committed to improving their lot... from the mother living in the Mumbai ghetto whose girls are working as data entry clerks to the Asian billionaires building the 21st century multi-nationals. I do not find it true of business men and women in the USA, where I have found the entrepreneur unable to "dream" for the past three years... dreams, which are essential to risk taking. Are things improving... they will and can though in a new paradigm yet to emerge.

Thanks to Financial Times for an excellent analysis of the reality of technology driven leadership and entrepreneurism in the the USA... Mr. Richard Waters writes in "A dip in the valley" - "Early stage investors appear to be losing interest in the painstaking work needed to sustain America's lead in the advanced industries that can generate many future jobs."

An example showcasing a macro trend in full swing (though it impacts micro economics as well) is: "When Massachusetts came up with $58m of incentives in 2008 to encourage Evergreen Solar to build a plant, it looked like the US state had found a new lease of life for a disused military base. Until last week, that is. Evergreen is shutting the facility with the loss of 800 jobs. The future location of Evergreen’s wafer making: a plant in Wuhan, China."

[Click to enlarge the graphic in the right.]


Again I am reminded of Gordon Moore's (Intel co-founder) lament that chasing returns has left a gap in invention in the USA. More strongly worded though is: "The belief that American individuality and creativity somehow assure future leadership is “a clear exposition of the arrogance of empire”, warns Michael Moritz, one of the Valley’s leading start-up financiers. Freed of “the debilitating effects of affluence”, he adds, “the need to succeed is far greater in the emerging economies”."

The article discusses US's inability to turn out enough engineers, decreasing share of its world R&D spending, sense of decline in the US, some of the existing invention's business being lost to Asia (ex: LED), etc. The article documents Mr. Moritz statement,"A company that loses its ability to develop its own manufacturing is on the road to oblivion."

And of course, such a conversation cannot end without evaluating current and desired policy - One area being talent, growing it, acquiring it and maintaining it: "Sophie Vandebroek, a Belgian engineer who moved to the US in the mid-1980s to train, says that at the time it was “the place to be – this was where the hot research was happening”. Ms Vandebroek stayed and eventually became chief technology officer at Xerox – in spite of the low status accorded to engineers in the US: “It’s kind of at the bottom of the professions.” Now, she and others warn, US immigration rules that make it harder for foreign students to stay, along with the availability of good jobs at home, are causing the country to leach much-needed foreign workers."

The second, the conduction of business: "If it is not to become left behind in businesses such as [solar, energy storage, green tech], the industry’s leaders say, it is time for a policy rethink. “Simply put, the US needs to decide it is ‘open for business’ and willing to compete in the global marketplace for factories and jobs,” says Paul Otellini, chief executive of Intel. “Costs are higher here, not driven by labour rates but rather by lack of incentives or tax credits that are available to US corporations in most other countries.” Without education reform, there will be a “critical engineering skills gap [that] will ultimately translate into fewer jobs and inventions in this country”."

The article concludes with the Valley still has a spark, "But for the country at large, it would not pay to take that much for granted."

See the complete article here.

West's Decline & Mr. Gordon Brown's Insights on Recovery

It is always helpful to know what the leaders of nations are thinking during crisis, which may be driven by economics, climate, etc. What is even more interesting is to see the realization of the "what" into the "how", which usually is a bit farther away from the desired.

In his article "How the west can reverse a decade of decline" in the Financial Times here, Mr. Gordon Brown highlights an obvious fact - "Within a decade a richer Asia will be home to a middle-class revolution equivalent to the consumer power of two Americas, becoming the main driver of world growth... This shift can be the most effective exit strategy from the crisis, and help to rebalance the world economy – but only if Europe and America re-equip, and are able to export their superior innovations and global brand name goods to Asia’s new billion-strong middle class. Yet delivering these value-added, technology-driven, custom-built products and services will only be possible with high levels of investment."

Here is a fallacy - Western innovation is not superior, and if it is, for example, internal combustion engine, it is being leapfrogged as China is focusing on electrical vehicles and in a decades time frame will be delivering commoditized electric vehicles and/or their components to the world.

Mr. Brown though highlights a key consideration and this is where his "what" is right on, though the "how" to manage it is already looking like as he predicts - "The descent into trade and currency wars, bans on cross border takeovers, and excessive restrictions on skilled workers are also counterproductive, risking access to the world’s biggest new markets just at the time they could benefit us most. History will judge these newly fashionable orthodoxies as wrong as the false certainties of the 1930s."

Here is an example of how reacting to fear due to lack of knowledge, just like GM not adopting the electric vehicle option, gets popularized, and Mr. Brown's statement above may come to be:

As a senior South Asian diplomat friend of mine says, "But what to do??!!" :)

Education Statistics in the Poorest Countries of the World

I have been consulting in the development sector for the past few years.  I found the data above of great value representing extremes in education in some of the poorest countries in the world.

South Asian Consumer Insight - Jaipur Literature Festival

"As the [India's] economy has boomed, and its middle class has grown, book sales have shot up.  Most books in India are still sold in small family-run shops, but book chains are moving into malls and airports.  Keen to exploit this growth, several foreign publishers, including Hachette, and HarperCollins have launched in India in recent years."

States the Economist article here.  While consumer products, luxury brands, etc. remains aspirational goods, anything related to educational is imbued int he psyche of the culture.  This perhaps is yet another avenue for democratization of the "class" structure in India.

"Room was also made for a group of writers who are little known, even in India: Dalits, formerly known as “untouchables” at the bottom of Hinduism’s caste system. Omprakash Valmiki, whose Hindi autobiography, “Joothan: A Dalit’s Life”, has been translated into English, read poems about the routine wretchedness of the lives of poor Indians. Another Dalit, Ajay Navaria, surprised some of his listeners with his expletive-peppered verses."

See the festival's website here.

Culture and Consumer Choices

The article "Cultural research tour reveals who likes what" in the Financial Times discusses the disparities in consumer behavior when it comes to jewelery here.  For the astute, this also provides insights in luxury and aspirational consumer goods and services as well.  In emerging markets of China and South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh), jewelery provides the deepest insights as it represents social standing as well as continuation to brand loyalty as it can be a significant both monetarily and as an emotive purchase.

"In the US today, the average price of a piece of diamond jewellery is $199, while in China it is $1,000 - David Rudlin, Japan-based global marketing director for De Beers’ Forevermark"

The article did not highlight though whether the jewelery industry is a follower or a predecessor to overall consumer markets trend?  Or does it stay constant?  That would be valuable information.

Few more interesting trends, for example, the difference in American and Japanese consumers overall are highlighted simply:

"In the US, 80 per cent of diamonds sold are for the bridal market. The American market is more ready than the Japanese to sacrifice quality for size... “The Japanese reject anything with even invisible flaws,” says Mr Rudlin."

"The biggest jewellery chain in the world, Chow Tai Fook, has 1,000 stores in China and will have 2000 by 2020. In China, 70 per cent of the market is made up of solitaire wedding rings, which are relatively easy to design and manufacture."

"“India, with its jewellery culture inspired by maharajas, is unlike anywhere else in the world,” says Mr Rudlin. “The demand is skewed to elaborate multi-stone pieces, with a focus on necklaces, earrings, bracelets and bindis and hair jewels.”"

Innovation in Emerging Market: New Business Models

In Economist's recent report on innovation in emerging markets here, the article "Here be dragons" talks about three specific business models that - "are not only important innovations in their own right but have serious implications for the way that Western companies run their affairs".

The three business models discussed and shared below are designed for the culture and society that is under pressure of growth and has a deep desire to fulfill its aspirational goals. The West cannot copy and paste these. It can only succeed if the society is willing and driving its own transformation. Will it? In another article from the report, "The power to disrupt":

"Anand Mahindra, vice-chairman of the eponymous family firm, says that these days when Indians go to bed at night their dreams about their country’s future “are not just colourful but steroidal”. His compatriots are at last beginning to believe that “the sandcastles we build in our minds are not going to be simply washed away by the morning tide.” The same is true across the emerging world, whose “sandcastles” are now being built on the solid foundations of business innovation. They will endure, changing not just emerging markets but the rest of the world as well."

Business Models -

The first business model is "scaling out, which means involving a wider range of people in the process of production and distribution, something that has been made much easier by mobile phones and the internet. The most successful examples of this are clinics on wheels, but there are plenty of others. Nutriset, a French manufacturer of fortified food for malnourished children, has outsourced production to local franchises in Africa. The company maintains quality control and the franchises are close enough to the children to make distribution quick and easy." This is in comparison to "scaling up".

The second business model is "“pull” model ..., designed to help companies mobilise resources when the need arises. Hong Kong’s Li & Fung or China’s Chingquing Lifan Group can use their huge supply chains to produce fashion items or motorcycles in response to demand. Taiwan’s Quanta and Compel can produce cheap computers and digital cameras for a fashion-conscious digital marketplace." this is in comparison to the "push" model.

The third business model is "the application of mass-production techniques to sophisticated services. This started with India’s outsourcing firms, which demonstrated that economies of scale and scope could be reaped from services that used to be highly fragmented and geographically rooted. These outsourcers are still expanding and moving upmarket. Indian consultancies are now challenging Western ones in complex services, not just dealing with customer complaints."

And it is the third model that is creating impact beyond the traditional information technology driven growth: "[Indian entrepreneurs] see a huge market for legal services requiring a high level of expertise. Dr Shetty is only one of many Indians who are applying Henry Ford’s principles to health care. LifeSpring has reduced the cost of giving birth in a private hospital to $40 by looking after many more mothers. Aravind, the world’s biggest eye-hospital chain, performs some 200,000 eye operations a year. It takes the assembly-line principle literally: four operating tables are laid side by side and two doctors operate on adjacent tables. When the first operation is done, the second patient is already in place."

Innovation in Emerging Market: Consumer Spending

"To flourish in this atmosphere, it helps to have the spirit of a frontier settler, not a corporate bureaucrat." states the article "Grow, grow, grow" in Economist's recent report on innovation in emerging markets here.

Innovation in Emerging Market: Data Points

"The engineering gap" in the January Economist states:

"According to the [Aspiring Minds, India], only 4.2% of India’s engineers are fit to work in a software product firm, and just 17.8% are employable by an IT services company, even with up to six months’ training. A larger share could cope in business-process outsourcing (call centres and the like). These findings are even gloomier than the 25% figure for employability that has been bandied about since 2005, when McKinsey released the results of a survey of international companies."

Download the complete report here.

The article "Grow, grow, grow", in Economist's recent report on innovation in emerging markets here, states: "McKinsey reckons that only 25% of India’s engineering graduates, 15% of its finance and accounting professionals and 10% of those with degrees of any kind are qualified to work for a multinational company."

The emerging market growth is fantastic, yet reviewing the thorough report from the Aspiring Minds raises or should raise questions for the multinationals. Also, curious if this level of employability applies to the Indian scientists as well?

In the report on innovation in emerging markets, the following statistics provide food for thought:

"The number of companies from Brazil, India, China or Russia on the Financial Times 500 list more than quadrupled in 2006-08, from 15 to 62. Brazilian top 20 multinationals more than doubled their foreign assets in a single year, 2006...

Multinationals expect about 70% of the world’s growth over the next few years to come from emerging markets, with 40% coming from just two countries, China and India...

Fortune 500 [companies] have 98 R&D facilities in China and 63 in India. ... General Electric’s health-care arm has spent more than $50m in the past few years to build a vast R&D centre in India’s Bangalore... Cisco is splashing out more than $1 billion on a second global headquarters—Cisco East—in Bangalore... Microsoft’s R&D centre in Beijing is its largest outside its American headquarters in Redmond... a quarter of Accenture’s workforce is in India."

Frugal and Bandit Innovation

I have believed that one of the key ways disruptions in products and services get developed is when the environment creates pressures and the creative thinkers deliver game changing and apropos to the need innovation.  I have been argued against that places like Silicon Valley are not being pushed yet continue to lead... and always an interesting debate ensues!

Here is an excellent video on how the developing and frontier markets are innovating on top of what is considered breakthrough for the developed countries.  I like having the Economist on my side in this debate.

Jeremy Grantham on Financial Bubbles - Excellent!

Jeremy Grantham states - "Bernake has happily picked up the mantle, and seems totally unconcerned about creating another bubble.  He has got interest rates so low, banks can't possibly not make a fortune, savers are being penalized, anyone who wants to buy cash faces a painful experience... so we are all tempted into speculating, which is apparently what he wants and we have just had one of the great speculative rallies in history second only to 1932-33."  Watch the complete interview here.

India's National Institute of Design

I am always inspired by some excellent work at the Young Designers website of National Institute of Design in India, see various examples related to communication, interdisciplinary, industrial, textile and IT here.

Congratulations to the faculty, administration and the students on bringing the institute through to its 50 years this year.  I hope to visit in person one day!

See the NID's website here.

Indian Consumer Debt Recovery Technique

An approach deployed by Indian banks to recover consumer debt - "He is a private money recovery agent – more commonly referred to here as a goon – who is hired by a large private bank to collect debts from credit card holders. Mr Shirole requested the bank not be named." See details here.

This provides a unique insight into adoption of or perhaps "copying and pasting" of what may have worked elsewhere while the current policies and infrastructure do not allow for sustainability of the solution.

The East Rising

The Economist states: "The East is undoubtedly rising but its new day has barely begun." Excellent graphical representation of regional growth comparisons.

In-Context Consumer Innovation

Prith Banerjee, Director of HP Labs talks about the importance of innovation in-context of the consumer's environment, from the McKinsey:

"Today, HP Labs is in seven different locations around the world. We are in India, China, Russia, Israel, and all over the place. And the reason we moved to those locations has nothing to do with cheap labor. By moving a researcher from Palo Alto to India—and maybe the cost is half that in India—it has nothing to do with cheap labor.

It has to do with the researchers in India trying to tap into the talent in India. And the researchers in India are actually working on projects that are relevant to that context. So HP Labs India, its mission is innovation for the next billion customers.

I strongly believe that it is not very easy for researchers sitting in Palo Alto to imagine the problems for the billion people in India, the vegetable vendors in India. What kind of cell phones, what kind of PDA devices would they need to solve their day-to-day problems?

Sitting here in Palo Alto, you imagine that the whole world is developed, and it’s not. So the researchers in India are actually working on precisely those problems. They are looking at rich, intuitive interfaces; they are looking at devices, sort of a smart phone for the Indian market. There are a billion people in India. More than 70 percent of the people have cell phones, but only 5 percent of people have PCs, computers, in their homes. So what we are trying to do is to see how we can enable the remaining 95 percent of people in India to embrace computing.

The challenge isn’t that they can’t afford a computer. It’s true, a computer is $1,000. But they are affording televisions. They’re affording cars. They’re affording scooters. So clearly it is not the price, it is the value. Can we bring value to those people in India? And that’s an example of a project that is going on—it’s a project called a value device, a sort of cloud service and a platform environment that they are working on in India. Completely innovative. And those kinds of projects would not have happened from the researchers in Palo Alto."

World Perspective 6 [Water]

Asia Poised for Innovation

A chat with friend and advisor Mr. Martin Ertl, CIO Bombardier Transportation highlighted that the most recent patent applications for alternate energy and/or clean energy have been coming out of China and at a steady pace and massive rate.

The following article from the McKinsey Quarterly, "Asia and the elements of innovation" by Eric Drexler could not have been more apropos to my conversation with Mr. Ertl.  The article discusses some of the key differentiators of Weatern and Asian cultures and why Asia looks to take exponential lead in innovation.  The article states:

"To become a world-class center of technological innovation, a society must have three basic elements:
• drive—a culture that supports change and hungers for it
• human capital—the personal abilities that make world-class technology possible
• a capacity for mobilization—a society’s ability to pursue ambitious new goals"

Having personally experienced education in South Asia, I can attest to the following, though it is changing:

"Cultures differ radically in their attitudes toward education. In the rising societies of Asia, education is a top priority, far above, for example, sports. During national exam season, when students study for the test that will determine their future in higher education, I found that Indian newspapers carry science and mathematics quizzes that would stump most US college graduates. Recent physics tests given to US and Chinese students entering comparable technically oriented universities produced distributions of scores that had little overlap. In Chinese societies, scholarly students have a status among their peers like that of athletes in the United States and run little risk of being marginalized, ridiculed, or beaten. In India, I found that students chase after the autographs, not of entertainers, but of scientists."

Read the complete article here.

Breakthrough Health Care Consumer Innovation in India

I am excited to showcase India Institute of Technology at Kharagpur, India here on my blog yet again (see previous entry here). The Economist has published an article "On the pulse" here regarding development of an artificial heart at IIT-KGP that will be going into human trials in a matter of a year or so. The cost will be 1/30th of the average cost of one developed in the USA with much less failure rates. Please click through to the article for detials.

I like to share the trend I have been observing - South Asian educated mind's movement from memorization of best practices and replication to challenging the learned behaviors and "creating" the next breakthrough.

"A new, low-cost design for an artificial heart takes its inspiration from an unusual source—the cockroach."

My congratulations to IIT-KGP! Brilliant.

Health Care Consumers Winning in India

"America's spending on health care is soaring, yet its medical outcomes remain mediocre."

So states "Lessons from a frugal innovator" in the Economist here. The article begins with the description of a complex heart bypass surgery, while the patient is having a chat. This approach has been pioneered by Dr. Vivek Jawali at Wockhardt, an Indian hospital chain. According to the article this is just one of the many innovation in health care in India. The article goes on to share other innovation-in-practice examples like the one above.

The article highlights how the Western prowess in the medicine perhaps may be detrimental to itself:

"Dr. Jawali is feted today as a pioneer, but he remembers how Western colleagues ridiculed him for years for advocating his inventive “awake surgery”. He thinks that snub reflects an innate cultural advantage enjoyed by India.

Unlike the hidebound health systems of the rich world, he says, “in our country’s patient-centric health system you must innovate.” This does not mean adopting every fancy new piece of equipment. Over the years he has rejected surgical robots and “keyhole surgery” kit because the costs did not justify the benefits. Instead, he has looked for tools and techniques that spare resources and improve outcomes."

Interestingly, I experienced this first hand at a seminar discussing changes in health care in the USA. An Indian student tried to highlight some of the advantages stated in the article and the presenter proceeded to slight him that this may not be the case on this particular planet.

Yet, as the article shows, the Western organizations themselves are tired of their own system.

"Columbia Asia, a privately held American firm with over a dozen hospitals across Asia, is also making a big push into India. Rick Evans, its boss, says his investors left America to escape over-regulation and the political power of the medical lobby."

India is offering another advantage to the breakthrough innovators, faster improvements at speeds unparalleled in any other part of the world.

"[Aravind, the world’s biggest eye-hospital chain] staff screen over 2.7m patients a year via clinics in remote areas, referring 285,000 of them for surgery at its hospitals. International experts vouch that the care is good, not least because Aravind’s doctors perform so many more operations than they would in the West that they become expert."

Perhaps, this is an approach to perfection through practice, as the old adage goes! The article closes with:

"[Tim Brown, head of Ideo] says, "In health care, as in life, there is need for both Ferraris and Tata Nanos."

Product Innovation from India

While at P&G, I developed a R&D center outside of the USA. It is exciting to read this article "Outsourcing: Product Innovation from India" here, highlighting how India has slowly but steadily moved up the product innovation value chain at RealInnovation.com. Even though the article is based on a white paper originally published by Zinnov in 2005, it is insightful. The article states:

"As of 2005, more than 150 international companies, large and small, were doing R&D in India. Multinational companies started hiring strong leaders to run their development centers in India. Some of these companies imported expats (professionals returning from the United States, the United Kingdom and other Western countries) to run their operations in India. The leadership teams of these companies understood that they could do a lot more from India than simply being a back office to the product teams in their home countries. Thus began a quiet revolution. The India-based leadership teams of these companies convinced their executive management to allow them to take ownership of certain products whereby the Indian teams could conceptualize and build new features and modules."

Here an excellent diagram from the article showing the product companies operating in India as of 2005.



Update: A macro-economic number showing India had 5.4% growth in Q1 2009 vs. projected growth of 5.2%.