India: Brand overload

Quote from WSJ article:

"India's store shelves groan under the weight of consumer brands. About 900 new food and beverage brands alone have been launched there in the past two years. Yet while shoppers enjoy ever more choice, it is getting harder for companies such as Procter & Gamble and Hindustan Unilever to preserve profit margins."

Consumer Products Goods sector is going to be a very competitive market in this decade to create large values for investors. The winners will be ones who are Unique versus Distinctive. See my previous blog on the subject here, or win on price points.

Power's Impact on Behavior

For CPG companies such as P&G and Unilever, whose shopper is mostly a woman, the concept of empowerment to purchase for the household is an important topic.  Also, retailers large and small look at the buying "power" of the geo- and demo- graphics to price in their locale, for example.  So, what is the impact of "power" on the individual.

Here are a few strategic insights from the work of Adam Galinsky, Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University (details here) and Joris Lammers, Tilburg University (details here) in their work "Illegitimacy Moderates the Effects of Power on Approach", download here.

"“Power activates a person’s behavioral approach system and underlies our motivation to act, while powerlessness activates our behavioral inhibition system to restrict action and risk-taking,” said Galinsky.

“But, in illegitimate power scenarios, the powerless are more likely to act without direction in an attempt to change the situation, and the powerful may inhibit their actions for fear of losing their undeserved seat at the top.”"

Another study from them published in the Psychological Science here, "Power Increases Hypocrisy, Moralizing in Reasoning, Immorality in Behavior" sheds light on a few interesting conclusions.  Following are excerpts from a review in the Economist:

"...powerful people who have been caught out often show little sign of contrition. It is not just that they abuse the system; they also seem to feel entitled to abuse it."

Dr. Lammers and Dr. Galinsky introduce a new term "hypercrisy":

"...an intriguing characteristic emerged among participants in high-power states who felt they did not deserve their elevated positions. These people showed a similar tendency to that found in low-power individuals—to be harsh on themselves and less harsh on others—but the effect was considerably more dramatic. They felt that others warranted a lenient 6.0 on the morality scale when stealing a bike but assigned a highly immoral 3.9 if they took it themselves."

The research linked above and the Economist's conclusion paint a bleak picture though:

"Perhaps the lesson, then, is that corruption and hypocrisy are the price that societies pay for being led by alpha males (and, in some cases, alpha females). The alternative, though cleaner, is leadership by wimps."

Shoppers Reality at the Shelf

Having been the Architecture Leader at Procter & Gamble on the shopper and consumer virtualization platforms, I am thrilled to see that the statistics still hold true when you and I stand in front of the shelf to make the buy or not to buy decision.  My work was covered in AG Lafley's book "Game Changer" blogged here by friend and colleague Franz Dill.  Franz was instrumental in setting up the P&G Innovation Centers, now enabling P&G to be the leader in shopper and consumer insights to impact product development at the concept stage:

"In the Bases research, the biggest driver of new-product awareness in store was simply seeing the product on the shelf -- accounting for product awareness in 71% of cases where people cited the store. All the other tools marketers and retailers use to drive in-store awareness -- including off-shelf displays, retailer circulars, product demos, in-store media and samples, accounted for awareness in only 2% to 18% of those cases. In-store media and product demos both scored in the low single digits. That helps drive home the importance of packaging and signage, Mr. Twitty said."

States the article "This Upfront, P&G May Want to Boost Spend on Piggly Wiggly" here. 

Though AdAge's graph here from Nielsen showcases the impact of shopper based design, shopper driven marketing communication, shopper based package design, etc. see below a video from the Economist on the impact of TV on the shopper and the consumer.

World Retailing: Retail via eCommerce

In the Financial Times World Retailing this month, "Seamless service from clicks and bricks" talks about the growth of eCommerce driven retail, moving of luxury goods sales to the internet and their success, and a combination of clicks and bricks.

"Deloitte and Forrester, the technology and market research group, found that 40 per cent of retail sales in the US last year were influenced by the internet, with consumers either shopping online or using the internet to gather information on potential purchases."

Now the fun begins!  The five senses to be influenced available to a retailer in the retail store disappear on the web.  How does one create the right experience for the diversified, from the affluent to the lower middle class, to engage and convert them?  This is where pure analysis fails... for example, if a web shopper is recognized as liking red because they bought a red pen, does that imply they would also buy a red car, and a red shirt, and so on.  Insights into behaviors through aggregation can result in misfires and loosing the online shopper all together.  eCommerce retailers will need to move towards personalization - the market does not have but one true personalization player, one that can comprehend astronomically large coincidence points of the shopper and instantly connect the semantics to it, while providing this information at instantaneous speeds.

Current solutions can collect all the dots yet, as the article states, "But joining the dots takes time."  Most of the time the shopper has moved on or has been influenced by a different solution to their need.

eCommerce is also going to enable new entrants in the global market place as the "virtual shopper" can do shopping on the eCommerce "virtual shelf" from anywhere.  Like I said, now the fun begins!  Will the shopper and consumers be the winners in the end?

"As retailers rush to provide even better online shopping experiences for their core customers, they are also using the internet to procure new ones.

The next step for many is to use the internet to give them exposure overseas.

Next, the UK-based clothing chain, said last month that it was pulling back from expanding overseas through its own stores in favour of growth via the internet.

It has expanded its online operation to 36 countries and has been selling into the US via the internet since the middle of last year.

“Internationalising sales is a smart strategy,” says Mr Fitz- gerald. “With the internet, you can go into 20 new countries within a year. It is remarkable and you really can achieve that kind of scale if you prioritise and focus.”"

If you would like to read this and other articles in the World Retailing, download the complete file here.

World Retailing: It's all in the Data!

In the Financial Times World Retailing this month, "Good analysis and use of data can make all the difference" highlights the role of information technology from product manufacturing to in-market to consumption.

"“But what has changed since is that there is now a renewed focus on looking at where retailers make money, and that is in the store,” [Andy Park, industry leader for retail and consumer products for northern Europe at IBM] says."

What is interesting to note is "Retailers are still investing to improve the way they handle the last 50 metres of the logistics chain, from the stock room to the shelf."

The article does not fully touch on one of the most important piece, shopper data... data that has been collected for close on a decade, loyalty cards, credit cards, POS, etc.  Coarse grain segmentation with 10% to 90% hit or miss margins and marketing budget wastage may finally begin to be managed through not only statistical analysis, but making "sense" of the shopper decisions, i.e. the semantics of the shoppers actions or not.

"“There is a shift in focus to insight and not just measurement analytics, but to insights into the shoppers themselves,” says Renee Sang, who runs Accenture’s Customer Innovation Network.

“Price transparency is now a given, so retailers want to identify which customers are most likely to convert [to buyers]. Not all customers convert in the same way. For some it’s price, for others assortment, others service.”"

If you would like to read this and other articles in the World Retailing, download the complete file here.

World Retailing: Consumerism and The West

In the Financial Times World Retailing this month, "Consumption starts to shift to China, India and Brazil" discusses that the average shopper and consumers balance sheets are in better shape than they were a year ago.  Yet, the article states:

"But if the consumer is coming back to malls and high streets, their attitudes are changing, according to recent research.

Consumers around the world are reining back spending on non-essential items, according to Datamonitor.
Half of shoppers say they would cut back on buying new clothes and shoes, while 41 per cent say they will be reducing the amount they spent on cosmetics and fragrances.

Meanwhile, ostentatious consumerism is out, as shoppers are uncomfortable about flaunting wealth in more austere times. As a result, retailers are beginning to replace branded handbags and other high end goods with more subtle items."

I am tempted to ask if this is temporary or here to stay?  The outcome that the article highlights is "...that spending in the US, which currently accounts for 72 per cent of gross domestic product, should move back to its historical level of 66 per cent."

The more likely scenario that is emerging is that the consumerism begun through the design innovation of Raymond Loewy may merge into socially responsible products being the pull from the shopper and consumer.  This seems to be the case as stated multiple times else where in the "World Retailing", specifically in the article "Green moves make savings".  Another one is the growth of eCommerce creating a completely new sector rather than a sales channel.

If you would like to read this and other articles in the World Retailing, download the complete file here.

World Retailing: Circumspect

In the Financial Times World Retailing this month, "More circumspect attitude prevails" provides some intriguing highlights into the GCC market place - "Mirdif’s developers, Majid Al Futtaim Properties, insist the Dh3bn ($820m) project makes sense. Like businesses in other sectors, they are betting on recovery in an oil rich region that has a reputation for rampant consumerism and the emergence of a “mall culture” whereby shopping is a primary source of entertainment."

As an example, here is a list of Malls in Dubai with links to the stores in the malls and shopper comments where the mall culture is alive and thriving

If you would like to read this and other articles in the World Retailing, download the complete file here.

World Retailing: Indian Shoppers Promise the Highest Growth

In the Financial Times World Retailing this month, "Traditional vendors still dominate" discusses how India remains the "world's most attractive developing country for retail investments."  The article states that "large foreign players such as Wal-Mart, Tesco and Carrefour, have been kept on the margins by New Delhi’s ban on foreign direct investment in so-called “multi-brand retail.”" but believes that it will and has to change in the near future - "“I think all the domestic players have burnt up a lot more cash than they thought they would,” says Mr Mukherjee [an AT Kearney principal in New Delhi]."

Today, Trent (Tata group's retail arm) operates Westside department store.  In groceries, Tata gets technical support from Tesco for their HFS Star Bazaar.  Similarly, Bharti Enterprises has Easy Day with technical support Wal-Mart.

India, a nation whose primary language is English, has a shopper whose behavioral patterns are more desirous of Western culture does seem like the ideal candidate for retail investment.  Question is if it will end up inventing solutions designed specifically for its shopper and consumer and create a new market place for shopping?  For example, the HFS format is an Asian invention adopted and improved upon by the rest of the world.  A version of "dhaba-walas" has always existed throughout the developing coutnries.

If you would like to read this and other articles in the World Retailing, download the complete file here.

Brand Manager vs. Brand Advocate?

Forrester has finally caught up with the leading marketing companies of today!  Forrester published a report recommending the shift from the designation "Brand Manager" to "Brand Advocate" in their report - "Adaptive Brand Marketing: Rethinking Your Approach To Brands In The Digital Age", here.

I was activitly engaged in creating this new pathway seven years ago at PG-Tremor, details here.  The Advertising Age magazine states as much in their article, "Why its time to do away with the brand manager", here:

"Executives of big marketers Procter & Gamble and Unilever note that they're already doing much of what Forrester recommends.  The global brand strategist/local brand advocate breakdown, for instance, resembles how they and other big household and personal-care marketers already organize."

I remember one of the big moments was when the brand managers discovered they had minimal to no insights on the digital social networks driven communities of choice forming around the "choice" i.e. the brand that fulfilled a need.  The AdAge articles states this to be a necessity today:

"[Rex Briggs] believes marketers in the digital age need to be more "numerate", with more training in research and analytics..."

Interestingly, I remember listening to Paul Poleman current CEO of Unilever when he was at P&G about the importance of information technology in reaching the consumer.  He is quoted in the article stating:

"Web-enabled consumer intelligence may be one of the biggest benefits of social media for marketers."

The astute will note that Mr. Poleman used the words "intelligence" not analytics!

Machines Providing Real-Time Consumer Insights

"...Unilever, an Anglo-Dutch consumer-goods giant, is using expression-analysis software to pinpoint how testers react to foods. Procter & Gamble, an American competitor, is using similar technology to decipher the expressions of focus groups viewing its advertisements."

States the article "Machines that can see" here in The Economist.  Similarly, the ability of sensors driven understanding of environments can enable in-context communication with a perspective consumer.  Further, remembering the consumer and the context allows for touching them in a non-disruptive fashion where the flow of information or marketing is "continued".  For example, as the article states:

"Digital billboards—the large TV screens that display advertisements in public places—already take into account the weather (touting cold drinks when it is hot) and the time of day (promoting wine in the evening). NICTA, a media laboratory funded by the Australian government, has gone a stage further. It has developed a digital sign called TABANAR, which sports an integrated camera. When a passer-by approaches, software determines his sex, approximate age and hair growth. Shoppers can then be enticed with highly targeted advertisements: action figures for little boys, for example, or razors for beardless men. If the person begins to turn away, TABANAR launches a different ad, perhaps with dramatic music. If he comes back later, TABANAR can show yet another advertisement. “You tend to go: ‘Wow, thanks, how did you know I needed that?’,” says Rob Fitzpatrick of NICTA."

At P&G, I led an effort in kiosks that enabled a perspective consumer to conduct virtual beauty care at the shelf for beauty care products.  Such services have existed in South Korea in specific but they may be going main stream across the world in other CPG categories:

"Computer vision has even advanced to the point that it can perform internet searches with an image, rather than key words, as a search term. Later this year Accenture, a consulting firm, will launch a free service, called Accenture Mobile Object-Recognition Platform (AMORP), that will enable people to use images sent from mobile phones to look things up on the web. After sending an image of, say, a Chinese delicacy, a curious foodie might receive information gleaned from AsianFoodGrocer.com, for example. Fredrik Linaker, head of the AMORP project at Accenture’s research centre in Sofia Antipolis, France, likens the project to “physical-world hyperlinking”."

The use of computer vision based applications beyond consumer centric opportunities are tremendous as well.  The article discusses the applicability and examples of use in intelligence and safety sector also.

Unilever and New Markets

While reading my friend Franz Dill's blog regarding Unilever here, I was reminded of an excellent article on Unilever's growth and capturing of market share in the emerging economies.

Unilever has been a household name in the emerging markets prior to other consumer product goods companies. It's Lifebuoy disinfectant soap is one of the world's oldest global brands. The above referenced article delves into the competition to be the brand for the household goods of the growing consumer base.

Here is an excerpt from the conclusion of the article:

"Although Unilever has tried to steer clear of head-to-head competition with P&G, that will not always be possible. But with the balance of the world economy shifting, Unilever's head start in emerging markets is a valuable advantage, not least because many of its brands are already well-known there."

The CPG / FMCG market in emerging economies is going to be a race, an adventure of consolidations and let us not forget that new players within those markets will emerge.