The Economist reviews Dambisa Moyo's "How the West was Lost"

The Economist provides good insights into new literature through its reviews of books.  Though, it has been a while, since I read such a blasting of a book in recent months.   The review "How the reader was lost" here of "How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly—and the Stark Choices Ahead" by Dambisa Moyo is worth reading as it corrects popularized misconceptions that tend to turn into perceived reality.

"Here are two predictions about the world economy. First, the West’s malaise and the rise of emerging economies will yield a mountain of books. Second, few of these are likely to be as bad as “How the West Was Lost”."

Consumer Behavior and Pricing

I was first educated on the art of pricing by a good friend Mr. Dennis J. Crane of the Business Navigation Group, details here.  Thanks Dennis!

A recent and an excellent report from UK's Office of Fair Trading, "The impact of price frames on consumer decision making" here, defines the various pricing strategies of retailers into price frames.  These are:

"A baseline treatment in which consumers see straight per-unit prices.

Drip pricing where the consumers see only part of the full price up front and price increments are dripped through the buying process.

Sales in which a sale price is given and a pre-sale price is also given as a reference to the consumer, 'was £2 is now £1' (actual pricesare identical to the baseline treatment).

Complex pricing where the unit price requires some computations, '3 for the price of 2'.

Baiting in which sellers may promote a special price but there is only a limited number of goods actually available at that price.

Time limited offers where the special price is only available for a pre-defined short period of time."

The report is extensive in its details on the process used.  Tabular formats break down the complexity of the analysis and the results.  Couple of key conclusions from the report are:

"The evidence from the controlled experiment shows that, in contrast to the predictions of standard economic theory, price frames do matter for consumer decision making and welfare. Consumers make more mistakes and achieve lower consumer welfare under the price frames we investigate as compared to straight unit pricing (the baseline)."

"The ranking of the price frames, starting with the worst – that which causes the greatest welfare loss - is as follows:
(1) drip pricing
(2) time limited offers
(3) baiting
(4) sales, and
(5) complex pricing."

If you are interested in a quick review of the report, please see the Economist article "You've been framed" here.  The Economist concludes that:

"Although consumers clearly lost out there were no corresponding overall gains for retailers. Sales volumes were virtually the same whichever way prices were presented. The main effect was on the distribution of sales. The first shop to lure shoppers sold many more goods, as consumers grabbed at poor deals. That made some firms better off but others (which would have offered better deals) were worse off. Most price frames made for lousy matches between shoppers and retailers, a bad result all around."

Do the manufacturers become the winners in the end?  Should manufacturers remain with the business they know?  Is a combination of an organization that is a manufacturer and a retailer work best?  That is, WalMart, Tesco, etc. with private labels or P&G with its eStore.  Questions abound, experiments continue...

Shoppers Reality at the Shelf

Having been the Architecture Leader at Procter & Gamble on the shopper and consumer virtualization platforms, I am thrilled to see that the statistics still hold true when you and I stand in front of the shelf to make the buy or not to buy decision.  My work was covered in AG Lafley's book "Game Changer" blogged here by friend and colleague Franz Dill.  Franz was instrumental in setting up the P&G Innovation Centers, now enabling P&G to be the leader in shopper and consumer insights to impact product development at the concept stage:

"In the Bases research, the biggest driver of new-product awareness in store was simply seeing the product on the shelf -- accounting for product awareness in 71% of cases where people cited the store. All the other tools marketers and retailers use to drive in-store awareness -- including off-shelf displays, retailer circulars, product demos, in-store media and samples, accounted for awareness in only 2% to 18% of those cases. In-store media and product demos both scored in the low single digits. That helps drive home the importance of packaging and signage, Mr. Twitty said."

States the article "This Upfront, P&G May Want to Boost Spend on Piggly Wiggly" here. 

Though AdAge's graph here from Nielsen showcases the impact of shopper based design, shopper driven marketing communication, shopper based package design, etc. see below a video from the Economist on the impact of TV on the shopper and the consumer.

Data To Information - Monitor to Manage

Nice audio at The Economist on data gathering, its conversion to information and the value that can be extracted, both retrospectively and predictively - "information about the information society"

The Economist For Subscribers Now

Recently, the Economist has begun restricting content on their site.  Some of the great information freely available to the Internet user is now for the paid subscribers only.

The magazine recently wrote an article on America's ailing newspapers "Big is Best", read here.  It will be interesting to see how the Internet news and information market place shapes up.

The Economist Looks at Business Through Schumpeter's Eyes

This is probably the best article I have read to date that puts the past, the present and what may be the future of business and management into perspective. The Economist's "Schumpeter, Taking Flight" is a new column launched on September 19th, 2009, read here, says of Schumpeter - "Joseph Schumpeter was one of the few intellectuals who saw business straight." I agree.

As an entrepreneur and a global businessman, Schumpeter's concepts on economics have made the most sense to me. Especially, the concept of "Creative Destruction" (see a primer here) has been a key to my thought process in the past twenty years as I conduct and build businesses around the world. The Economist states:

"[Schumpeter] regarded business people as unsung heroes: men and women who create new enterprises through the sheer force of their wills and imaginations, and, in so doing, are responsible for the most benign development in human history, the spread of mass affluence."

I look forward to the Economist's perspectives as it perceives business today through Schumpeter's eyes.

Predicted (Perceived) vs. Actual Social Behavior

A grand social policy shift was made in Portugal in 2001 - The decriminalization of drug use and possession. The Economist writes:

"The place was dubbed Europe's "most shameful neighbourhood" and its "worst drugs ghetto". The Times helpfully managed to find a young British backpacker sprawled comatose on a corner. This lurid coverage was prompted by a government decision to decriminalise the personal use and possession of all drugs, including heroin and cocaine. The police were told not to arrest anyone found taking any kind of drug."

Fast forward to 2009, the Economist quotes from a report on Portugal's decision and its outcomes:

"The number of addicts registered in drug-substitution programmes has risen from 6,000 in 1999 to over 24,000 in 2008, reflecting a big rise in treatment (but not in drug use). Between 2001 and 2007 the number of Portuguese who say they have taken heroin at least once in their lives increased from just 1% to 1.1%. For most other drugs, the figures have fallen: Portugal has one of Europe’s lowest lifetime usage rates for cannabis. And most notably, heroin and other drug abuse has decreased among vulnerable younger age-groups..."

"The share of heroin users who inject the drug has also fallen, from 45% before decriminalisation to 17% now, he says, because the new law has facilitated treatment and harm-reduction programmes. Drug addicts now account for only 20% of Portugal’s HIV cases, down from 56% before. “We no longer have to work under the paradox that exists in many countries of providing support and medical care to people the law considers criminals.”"

Hats off to Portugal for bringing innovation in social policy. See more data and read the complete article here at the Economist.

Consumer Value Shopping Driven Innovation in Retail

Andy Bond, CEO of ASDA talks with the Economist about the changes in consumer behavior and how ASDA continues to innovate and grow its revenue.

US Utility Consumer Managing Their Electricity

The utility companies run one of the oldest infrastructures in the USA. A friend working in mesh networks for Smart Grids highlighted the fact that an industry where change may occur once in 20 years is being driven to incorporate and integrate technology whose pace of change is substantially faster. Challenges abound!

The Economist in their recent Technology Quarterly have an excellent article on the subject, "Building the smart grid" here. The article highlights my point above further:

"Even though the demands being placed on national electricity grids are changing rapidly, the grids themselves have changed very little since they were first developed more than a century ago. The first grids were built as one-way streets, consisting of power stations at one end supplying power when needed to customers at the other end. That approach worked well for many years, and helped drive the growth of industrial nations by making electricity ubiquitous, but it is now showing its age."

From speed of growth, lack of transparency on the transmission and distribution side of the grid to the consumer's habits of obliquity to their electricity usage, the opportunities abound. Having lived and traveled overseas extensively, the USA lags in one key aspect that the article touches on some what - the US consumer has never been given an incentive to save electricity. The utility companies must grow their revenue and bringing smartness to the electric grid will cut into their top-lines. The article discusses this aspect:

"One problem is that power companies are understandably reluctant to invest in technologies that will reduce consumption of the product they sell, even if there are other benefits. One way to realign the public interest with that of the utilities is through a process called “decoupling” which breaks the direct relationship between electricity sales and profits, a measure that has been successfully employed in California. Energy use per person has remained largely flat over the past 30 years in California, but it has increased by roughly 50% for the rest of America. But in some instances the business case is straightforward. Enel (utility in Italy)spent around €2.1 billion ($3 billion) installing its 30m smart meters in Italy, but now saves around €500m a year as a result, so its investment paid for itself within five years."

I am reminded of Bill Bryson's article "The Waste Generation" on the US consumers' habits in his book "I am a stranger here myself". The author writes that when he used to live in England, the utility offered an off-peak energy plan resulting in value back to the customers. He used to run his washing machine on a timers at night to receive the benefits using timers.

Is the pain or perhaps the desire to manage utilities strong enough for the consumer to adopt the new changes or are the stimulus funds would be used enforce a new regime for the unwilling customer?

"The American government is spending some $4 billion from its economic-stimulus package on smart-grid initiatives, but providing a smart meter for every American home would cost far more: California’s investor-owned utilities alone are spending about $4.5 billion on deploying smart meters over the next few years. That implies that a nationwide implementation could cost around $50 billion. But PNNL estimates that $450 billion would have to be poured into conventional grid infrastructure to meet America’s expected growth over the next decade anyway. Mr Carlson, who now works for GridPoint, argues that a bit of thought is called for if the aim is to move to a new energy-management model, “as opposed to building more of what we’ve already got.”"

One thing is for certain, once the grid gets tapped, the invention driven entrepreneurial opportunities for revenue generation through fulfillment of user needs will be endless!

The Time has Arrived for Entrepreneurism

A very good article from the Economist - "A special report on entrepreneurship: An idea whose time has come" here. The report connects entrepreneurship and economics:

"Today entrepreneurship is very much part of economics. Economists have realised that, in a knowledge-based economy, entrepreneurs play a central role in creating new companies, commercialising new ideas and, just as importantly, engaging in sustained experiments in what works and what does not. William Baumol has put entrepreneurs at the centre of his theory of growth. Paul Romer, of Stanford University, argues that “economic growth occurs whenever people take resources and rearrange them in ways that are more valuable…[It] springs from better recipes, not just more cooking.” Edmund Phelps, a Nobel prize-winner, argues that attitudes to entrepreneurship have a big impact on economic growth."

The report believes that entrepreneurship going mainstream also lies in "... that the social contract between big companies and their employees has been broken."

The report discusses a fantastic effort by the World Bank:

"In 2003 the World Bank began to publish an annual report called Doing Business, rating countries for their business-friendliness by measuring things like business regulations, property rights and access to credit. It demonstrated with a wealth of data that economic prosperity is closely correlated with a pro-business environment. This might sound obvious. But Doing Business did two things that were not quite so obvious: it put precise numbers on things that people had known about only vaguely, and it allowed citizens and investors to compare their country with 180 others."

April 1st Launch of The Economist's New Theme Park

A look at the current econo-state of the world at "New Magical Monetary World of Econoland" - explore the clickable map of the theme park here. A few details on Econoland:

"The currency high-roller: Float like a butterfly with the euro and drop like a stone with the pound!"

"Fiscal fantasyland: Watch the economy shrivel before your very eyes as you struggle to stop growth falling!"

"The Severe Contest: Try your strength against a bear market!"

And further details from the spokesman in the article:

"“Econoland will appeal to the kid in everyone”, said a spokesman for The Economist Group, “although children themselves will not be admitted”. The park will open on April 1st."

China Declared as an Equal to USA on the World Stage

An email from The Economist:

"Dear Reader,
 
There is a sense in Beijing that this is China's moment. Its leaders nolonger stick to the script that China is a humble player in worldaffairs that wants to focus on its own economic development. InsteadChina is a "great power", which can chide America for its profligatespending, harass its spyships and treat a visiting Hillary Clinton asan equal. As for Europe, that distant, elderly speck on the horizon,it can be safely ignored: France is still blacklisted for daring totalk to the Dalai Lama. Geopolitics is now a bipolar affair, withAmerica and China the only two that matter. Thus in London next monththe real business will not be the G20 meeting but the "G2" summitbetween Presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao. This week we look atChina's new role in the world. Even if its new assertiveness reflectsweakness as well as strength, its relative power is growing--and boththe West and China itself need to adjust to this.

And how the world should see China - Click here."

The Economist's explanation of market destabilization

Excellent diagnosis and analysis of the current economic downturn by the Economist in their special report "When fortune frowned" here.