Stephen Roach: I'm starting to worry about China's economy

Via Mr. Tony Tsai, CEO – BHG Retail Innovation Institute and EVP Operations – The BJ Hualian Hypermarket Co.:

"This is an article written by Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, which is posted on the website of the Financial Times. Its original title is "I've been an optimist on China. But I‘m starting to worry". On the surface, China appears to be leading the world from recession to recovery. After coming to a virtual standstill in late 2008, at least as measured quarter-to-quarter, economic growth accelerated sharply in spring 2009. A back-of-the envelope calculation suggests China may have accounted for as much as 2% of annualized growth in inflation-adjusted world output in the second quarter of 2009. With contractions moderating elsewhere, China's rebound may have been enough in and of itself to allow the global gross domestic product to eke out a small positive gain for the first time since last summer.That's the good news. The bad news is that China's recent growth spurt comes at a steep price. Fearful that its recent economic short- fall would deepen, Chinese policymakers have opted for quantity over quality in setting the macro-strategy, the centrepiece of which is an enormous surge in infrastructure spending funded by a burst of bank lending. A macro strategy that exacerbates troubling imbalances is ultimately a recipe for failure. In many respects, that's what the global crisis and the recession of 2008-09 are all about. China will not get special dispensation from the most critical lesson of this post-crisis era."

See the complete article here.