Mr. Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO is someone I have listened to closely when it comes to understanding investments in global markets.
"As a group emerging markets have become stabilizers in the system, old days we thought of them a disruptor."
See the video here.
Excerpt from a letter in the Financial Times written by P. A. Stahl of American Astronomical Society, here:
"Sir, I appreciate Katy Delay’s effort (Letters, April 21) to portray economics as a science, but let’s be clear it is not. Economics has never been a science, it only adopts some scientific window dressing, a few of the methods (mostly statistics) and some jargon. But no serious empiricist would regard it as “science”.
For example, economics has no true objects of inquiry, say like physics, nor does it offer any consistent, theoretical models that don’t rely on statistical artefacts. Nor does economics make quality predictions based on said models, like atomic physics. If it had such capabilities, it would have foreseen the 2008 meltdown well in advance and warned everyone!
Even the most rudimentary student of statistics understands that regression models (even multiple) don’t show causality. The quants’ correlation factor (“gamma”) in their Gaussian Copula formula, in fact, helped precipitate the 2008 financial meltdown because they had zero insight into what they were really quantifying! Meanwhile, the illustrious economists – in their naive and incomplete statistical “modelling” – are prepared to ignore an entire raft of variables associated with what they call “externalities”. How very convenient!"
A report from the Brookings Institution and the Center on International Co-operation at New York University, "Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization", download here, discusses that the sort of problems governments will face in the 21st century will be unpredictable versus those faced during old great power rivalries. Concerns related to demography, climate change and shifts in economic power build up quietly for a long time and finally trigger sudden, disruptive shifts.
The authors suggest institutional level changes and changes in the frame of mind in solving the needs or crisis. They recommend risk mitigation and resilience to shocks - "Resilient systems are those that can absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to retain or enhance effective function, structure, identity and feedbacks."
The days of narrow focused, blinders on, problem solving are over as the deeply interconnected world continues to grow to be more so. This is the century of the "butterfly effects".
The Financial Times reviews Carrefour's CEO Lars Olofsson's progress over the past fifteen months in returning the retail giant to its revenue growth. "Mr. Olofsson says he has diagnosed the problem, which is basically the underperformance of non-food sales at the hypermarkets..." See article here.
Hypermarkets are an interesting retail environment, where the shopper and consumer merge, or can swap roles. Similar to eCommerce environments.
Ad Age writes in Apple Brings Multitasking, Skype Support to iPhone Update here, "The new software answers many developers' and consumers' requests, especially with features like some multitasking support, a unified e-mail inbox, better VoIP calling, and a social-gaming network. It's cool that you'll be able to listen to Pandora radio and make Skype calls while reading e-mail and surfing the Web."
The statement in the article "These are fine features, but nothing revolutionary" shows that Ad Age has to go a ways to comprehend technology. Multi-tasking implies that emergency messaging can get through, automated email updates, superior use of bandwidth when available, continuous consumer engagement solutions, continuous monitoring solutions in healthcare, etc. etc.
I'm disappointed in Ad Age!
CK Prahalad passed away in San Diego recently. The top fundamental and foundational business trans-formative concepts he developed that any management executive knows are - analysis of how multinationals operate in "The Multinational Mission" - concept of "core competencies" in "Competing for the Future" - co-creation with customers and consumers in an interconnected world in "The Future of Competition" - challenge to businesses to serve billions of people earning a few dollars a day in "The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid".
CK Prahalad was a Global Charter Member of The Indus Entrepreneurs - the world's largest non-profit organization promoting entrepreneurship through mentoring, networking and education. I am a Charter Member of TIE and President elect (TIE-Carolinas) as well and find the group to be an exceptional wealth of superb minds.
CK Prahalad will be missed.
"Brian Dunn, chief executive, told the Financial Times that the retailer expects eventually to have "a number somewhere between here and 1000" of Best Buy Mobile stores in shopping malls across the US, on top of the 77 it has already opened."
Read a related article at The Street here, see current Best Buy Mobile across the NE USA here.
Such stores will end up being similar to gas stations as the iPad driven convergence of internet communication, wireless telecom, content creation and management escalates. Hence my reason to call them what they really ought to be - High Frequency Stores. Something to invest in now?
Dr. Michael Polster, SVP at National Analysts Worldwide writes in the Financial Times here regarding neuromarketing, "At the moment, then, marketers - not consumers - are at risk of being seduced by a fledgling idea that is neither fully validated nor fully understood, rather than relying on tested market research techniques that have helped launch and sustain virtually every mega-brand in existence today."
Friend and colleague Franz Dill is engaged at Buyology, folks driving neuromarketing based on Martin Lindstorm's book "Buyology: Truth and Lies About Why We Buy". See company here. See Franz's blogs on neuromarketing here.
Saudi Arabia is planning to develop a civilian nuclear and renewable energy center, see an article in Arabian Business here. Interesting to note that Saudi Arabia uses 1.25m barrels of oil each day where the price of a barrel is $5, see Financial Times article "Saudi Arabia announces nuclear centre" here.
On the nuclear technology acquisition front, Saudi Arabia is in talks with France, while Kuwait has already signed a deal with France on developing a nuclear energy project, see here. And UAE recently signed a $20b nuclear deal with South Korea, see here.
Nuclear remains the cheapest (~6c/kwh), green and most available on-demand alternative energy today... yet the technology improvements are going to bring solar down further from (~20c/kwh) in the next few years.
The fun begins when mass energy stores become available!
Update: Areva, the French owned nuclear group, will be doing fund raising of ~$4b through mostly Middle Eastern and Asian investors.
During a seminar titled Digital Life, I stated to the audience that "Digital Life is Permanent" and gave a few examples. Now I have one more to add: Mr. Fabrice Tourre, the 31-year old Goldman Sachs vice president at the center of the SEC's case wrote in an email to his girlfriend that he is a "Survivor... of all these complex, highly leveraged, exotic trades he created without necessarily understanding all of the implication of those monstruosities [sic]!!!" (quote from ft.com)
The danger is digital life can be duplicated, tampered with...! How often can one change the passwords.
